A closer look at Oilers prospect Sam O'Reilly: Why Edmonton drafted him and what to expect (2024)

In a summer of shocking offseason developments, the Edmonton Oilers traded into the first round to select OHL centre Sam O’Reilly from the London Knights.

Oilers fans were in shock. The organization rarely trades up, let alone uses a future pick to trade into the first round of the current year.

The skill set selected was also mildly surprising. O’Reilly is a two-way centre with an aggressive style and is projected as a No. 2 or No. 3 centre.

When picking in the first round, or any round, valuing skill above all else is the best idea. (Someone even wrote a book about it.)

What were the Oilers thinking?

O’Reilly’s scouting report

It’s important to start at the beginning with the individual player’s skill. For O’Reilly, that means scouting reports before the NHL Draft.

Corey Pronman at The Athletic ranked O’Reilly No. 41 (he was taken No. 32), writing that he played “in all situations. He’s a two-way center. He competes hard and has physicality. I’ve seen quicker skaters, but he can escape pressure and has good enough quickness for the NHL level. O’Reilly has quality skill and vision and can create chances.”

Scott Wheeler at The Athletic had O’Reilly slotted at No. 52, writing: “O’Reilly does the little things really well, whether that’s making good little plays off the wall, stick lifts, his board work offensively, spinning off a check to create a little bit of space to funnel a play to the slot, or defending with detail. He’s also a natural center who is good in the faceoff circle and a plus-level skater and athlete. He projects as a potential well-rounded, complementary pro.”

Both men are respected for their ability to assess amateur talent, and they each had O’Reilly in the second round, well below where he landed.

Why?

Offensive talent is so rare that early picks must be used on high-end offensive talent. Based on scouting, O’Reilly appears to have “middle-six centre” upside. That’s valuable, but creating offence appears to be his weak spot.

This selection might work out, but the organization drafted for need in this case. History tells us that has limited appeal, and years from now, fans might be talking about a more skilled player chosen in the second round.

What do the numbers say?

The Oilers have drafted dozens of OHL players this century, so it’s fairly easy to slot O’Reilly’s junior offence by comparing some past selections. Here are the top 10 forwards, by points per game, drafted by Edmonton from the OHL since 2000:

O’Reilly ranks well down the list of OHL scorers in their draft seasons, but he is in some good company. Ryan McLeod and Tobias Rieder developed into productive NHL players, and both found a role as “middle-six” forwards.

For O’Reilly, it’s fair to say math and the eye test suggest a complementary offensive player.

Some of the chatter coming out of the draft had O’Reilly playing a depth role at even strength and on the power play. That suggests room to grow in the seasons to come, but at this point, the assessments of Pronman and Wheeler ring true and are confirmed by available math on the player.

Development timeline

On the positive side of the ledger, O’Reilly was described byBrock Otten from OHL Prospects as a “riser” during the later portion of the OHL season.

That can indicate a mere hot streak or be a step forward with big implications.

Otten wrote before the draft that “the only thing missing from (O’Reilly’s) game (outside of an increased role) is a more dynamic stride. He’s got the skill. He’s got the hands. He’s got the vision and sense. He’s already one of the best defensive forwards available this year. There’s a lot of Scott Laughton here. However, that may just be the low end of his ceiling.”

A centre with plus-two-way ability has great value. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Adam Henrique possess that kind of skill set and are valuable members of a strong Stanley Cup contender.

The next two years

Questions about the next steps are few with O’Reilly.

He is a member of the Knights, an elite junior team in the world’s best development league. He has a clear path to more minutes in all game states, and his range of skills (as described by Pronman, Wheeler and Otten) means there is more than one way he can make it to the NHL.

Expect more scoring and positive headlines over the next two seasons and for O’Reilly to stay in the OHL until he turns 20.

The Oilers are proof that rushing prospects to the NHL can negatively impact development and success.

Since the team selected Sam Gagner in the first round of the 2007 draft, the list of men rushed to the NHL as teenagers is long and dismal. Gagner, Magnus Paajarvi, Nail Yakupov, Leon Draisaitl, Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto and Evan Bouchard spent time in the NHL early, and some of those names were badly exposed at that level.

Once Ken Holland arrived as general manager, that practice ended. For the immediate and mid-term future, players drafted by Edmonton will be allowed to flourish outside pro hockey.

Why did the Oilers choose O’Reilly?

O’Reilly describes his game as “trench work,”and the Oilers have been adding that kind of player over recent summers.

Imagine a team with 12 forwards who can lean on a defenceman (like Draisaitl), cross-check a defenceman while removing the puck from opposition possession with the precision of a surgeon (like Connor McDavid), and pursue the puck with reckless abandon (like Zach Hyman).

That’s an impossible goal, but the team is moving away from smaller skilled men (represented by former Oilers Yamamoto and Xavier Bourgault) and toward a group of forwards who contest every inch of the ice.

A more rugged, suffocating attack appears to be the goal.

O’Reilly fits the description.

The skill is a question, and the Oilers left themselves open to criticism in this area. There’s a thin line between a middle-six centre who can contribute to outscoring (like Henrique and Nugent-Hopkins) and a bottom-six centre who plays a less valuable role.

If O’Reilly lands in the NHL and has a career similar to the comparables mentioned above (McLeod, Rieder, Laughton), the risk will have been worth it.

O’Reilly will tell us what he is as an NHL prospect beginning this fall in London.

(Photo: Candice Ward / Getty Images)

Allan Mitchell is a contributor to The Athletic's Oilers coverage. Veteran radio broadcast. His blog, Lowetide, has chronicled the team since 2005. Follow Allan on Twitter @Lowetide